Пропоную ознайомитися з коротким аналізом щодо впливу Brexit на економіку Канади від BDC (Business Development Bank of Canada). Чому це може бути корисним для нас? Тому, що інформація у статті є достатньо універсальною і корисною не лише для канадських бізнесменів. Зверніть особливу увагу на аналіз стосовно впливу на курси валют включно з євро. Адже ризики коливань валютних курсів є класичними для експорту і наразі вони зростають. Окрім того, цікавою є частина стосовно зони вільної торгівлі - адже у нас теж є ЗВТ з ЄС, частиною якого є Великобританія. І, подібно до Канади, в України теж може виникнути потреба в майбутньому проводити окремі переговори про зону вільної торгівлі з Великобританією. Зрештою, розглядати Великобританію в якості точки входу на єдиний європейський ринок вже буде недоцільно. Зрозуміло, що ми би хотіли отримати подібний аналіз для українських підприємців від українського уряду. Але давайте користуватися тим, що вже реально є і лежить просто "під ногами" - хоча б цією статтею :)
Brexit: What will the impact be on Canada’s economy?
On June 23, a majority of British citizens voted for their country to
leave the European Union, which it joined 43 years ago in 1973. The
United Kingdom, which in 2015 accounted for 13% of the EU’s population
and 18% of its gross domestic product, is one of the most important EU
member states1. Therefore, Brexit2 will not only
have an economic impact on the UK, but also on the rest of Europe as
well.
However, its impact on Canada’s economy will likely be limited, as discussed in this article.
However, its impact on Canada’s economy will likely be limited, as discussed in this article.
Increased financial market volatility and uncertainty
As soon as the results of the referendum were announced, the British
pound fell significantly against the euro and the U.S. dollar. The euro
also lost ground against several currencies, including the U.S. dollar,
and European market indexes fell. Asian financial markets were also
disrupted as investors turned to Asian currency markets, especially the
yen. Long considered a safe haven, the yen soared, causing the Tokyo
Stock Exchange to fall on investors' concerns over the negative impact
of this strong appreciation on the Japanese economy. In short, the
decision of British voters sent a real shock wave across global
financial markets.
It is difficult to foresee what will happen over the course of the
coming months, but what is clear is that the uncertainty surrounding the
future of the European economy should continue to create volatility for
currencies and stock indexes. Brexit presents a negative risk for world
economic growth. Clearly, the United Kingdom will suffer the most:
According to the OECD, if it leaves the EU, its GDP could be 3% weaker
by 2020 than if it stays3 . Secondly, by losing one of its
most important members, the European Union is most likely to feel the
after effects of the British decision. Countries that are not directly
affected, like Canada, are not immune from the fallout from this event.
It is creating uncertainty and could undermine investor confidence. The
negative effects on their economies should, however, be far less
significant.
Limited impact on trade
The United Kingdom is Canada’s third largest merchandise export
destination, after the United States and China. In 2015, Canada’s
exports to the country totalled $16 billion, some 3% of Canada’s total
exports. Canadian purchases of British goods totalled $9.2 billion, or
1.7% of total imports.
Canada mostly exports minerals and metals to the UK. Mining
(mostly gold and silver ore) accounts for 60.6% of total Canadian
exports to the United Kingdom, while primary metals rank second, at
11.6%. Transportation equipment exports (mostly aerospace products and
their parts) rank third at 4.2% (figure).
The terms and conditions of trade between Canada and the United Kingdom are not expected to change in the short run. To leave the European Union, the UK will have to proceed in accordance with Article 50 of the Treaty of European Union, which stipulates that any member state that wants to withdraw must first officially notify the European Council of its intention to do so. From that point, the EU and the state in question will have two years to negotiate a withdrawal agreement, unless the EU member states unanimously accept to extend this period4.
The terms and conditions of trade between Canada and the United Kingdom are not expected to change in the short run. To leave the European Union, the UK will have to proceed in accordance with Article 50 of the Treaty of European Union, which stipulates that any member state that wants to withdraw must first officially notify the European Council of its intention to do so. From that point, the EU and the state in question will have two years to negotiate a withdrawal agreement, unless the EU member states unanimously accept to extend this period4.
The new British Prime Minister Theresa May, who succeeded the
resigned Minister David Cameron, said she does not plan to officially
announce the withdrawal of the United Kingdom to the European Council
before the end of the year. It would therefore be surprising that an
agreement be reached quickly, especially since this is the first time a
country withdraws from the Union and that there is no clearly
established procedure.
Canada remains committed to bringing the Canada-European Union free trade agreement into force as quickly as possible
Canada’s free trade agreement with the European Union, known as the
Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA),
is still expected to be signed this year and enter into force in 2017.
Given that the UK will still be a member of the EU for the near future,
it will remain a partner in the CETA implementation process and once in
force CETA will apply to Canada-UK trade until the UK is no longer a
member of the EU.
We do not know what the terms and conditions of trade between Canada
and the UK will be once it is no longer a member of the EU. The two
countries could, indeed, negotiate a free trade agreement, but this
would not happen overnight. Such an agreement would take years to come
to fruition.
Will Britain continue to serve as the gateway to Europe?
A number of Canadian companies, like their foreign counterparts,
chose to invest in the United Kingdom with a view to expanding into the
European market. In 2015, Canadian direct investment in the UK reached
almost $93 billion. Several factors make the United Kingdom an ideal
gateway to Europe, particularly the ease of doing business there (the
country ranks 6th out of 189 on the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business Index5);
the size of its financial sector (the London Stock Exchange is the
largest in Europe and the third largest in the world); and, of course,
UK membership in the European market. Companies that used the UK as a
distribution hub for their products and services in Europe may have to
reassess their strategy or at least closely monitor the future
developments.
Conclusion: The impact on the Canadian economy should be limited
Trade between Canada and the United Kingdom has room to grow,
particularly in the area of value added products which the UK will
continue to need and acquire. Terms and conditions of trade may have to
be redefined, but this should not disrupt efforts to enhance Canada’s
bilateral trade with the UK. Finally, Brexit is not expected to delay
the entry into force of the Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic
and Trade Agreement. Overall, the impact on the Canadian economy should
be limited and Canada’s economy will suffer mainly from the uncertainty
that this event creates in the global economy over the coming months.
1. The European Union has 28 Member States: Austria, Belgium,
Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania,
Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia,
Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom.
2. Shortened from “British exit.”
3. Rafal Kierzenkowski et al., “The Economic Consequences of Brexit: A Taxing Decision”, OECD Economic Policy Papers 16 (2016), OECD Publishing, Paris. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5jm0lsvdkf6k-en.
4. http://eur-lex.europa.eu/summary/glossary/withdrawal_clause.html?locale=en.
5. http://donnees.banquemondiale.org/indicateur/IC.BUS.EASE.XQ.
2. Shortened from “British exit.”
3. Rafal Kierzenkowski et al., “The Economic Consequences of Brexit: A Taxing Decision”, OECD Economic Policy Papers 16 (2016), OECD Publishing, Paris. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5jm0lsvdkf6k-en.
4. http://eur-lex.europa.eu/summary/glossary/withdrawal_clause.html?locale=en.
5. http://donnees.banquemondiale.org/indicateur/IC.BUS.EASE.XQ.
